Rent, occupancy, absorption, other income, escalation, and timing.
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04 · PRO-FORMA + SENSITIVITY
What happens when the assumptions move?
A transparent operating model that shows the base case, the downside, the breakpoints, and which assumptions are carrying the deal.
Book a scope call
THE BASE CASE IS ONLY ONE CASETest the edges before they test you.
THE MODEL SHOULD ARGUE BACK
A pro-forma is useful only when it reveals what could make it wrong.
The work begins by separating observed facts, client assumptions, and calculated outputs. Then the important variables move—rent, absorption, vacancy, cost, financing, timing, and exit—to show where the project bends and where it breaks.
THE SENSITIVITY FIELD
See the decision, not just the cells.
RENT →
COST →
REPRICE
PAUSE
THIN
WORKS
STRONG
PAUSE
THIN
WATCH
WORKS
STRONG
NO
PAUSE
BASE
WORKS
STRONG
NO
NO
THIN
WATCH
WORKS
NO
NO
PAUSE
THIN
WATCH
WHAT GETS TESTED
The assumptions that usually decide the outcome.
Acquisition, hard and soft costs, contingencies, carry, and overruns.
Leverage, rate, amortization, draw timing, covenants, and equity need.
Hold period, stabilized NOI, cap rate, selling costs, and residual value.
THE USEFUL ANSWERS
Not “the IRR is 17.4%.”
BREAK-EVEN RENTHow low can rents fall?
MAXIMUM BASISWhat can we actually pay?
LEASE-UP WINDOWHow late is too late?
EXIT EXPOSUREWhat if the market reprices?
EQUITY AT RISKHow much more could be required?
DECISION LINEAt what point do we walk?
BEST FIT
Use this when a spreadsheet says yes—but the decision still feels fragile.
Development underwriting
Acquisition scenarios
Adaptive reuse
Capital-stack decisions
Partner and lender review
SEND THE ASSUMPTIONS